…what separated those with modest but significant predictive ability from the utterly hopeless was their style of thinking. Experts who had one big idea they were certain would reveal what was to come were handily beaten by those who used diverse information and analytical models, were comfortable with complexity and uncertainty and kept their confidence in check.Cowen cites that from Tetlock and Gardner's Why Most Predictions Are So Bad, at Forbes. This shouldn't be a revelation to many folks, but apparently it is. It's a multivariate world, whether you we like it or not. Base your predictions on one variable, and you'll usually get it wrong.
Thursday, March 24, 2011
This Bears Repeating
Tyler Cowen over at Marginal Revolution cites a tidbit that is worth repeating. Over and over. Folks should IMHO be pounded over the head with this until the lightbulb goes on: